The future potential for electric vehicles was examined using three different scenarios including any possible impact on the environment as well as infrastructure. By looking at the results, it can be concluded that there is major potential in Munich for electric vehicles if certain general requirements are fulfilled.
In the best-case scenario, electric vehicles could replace around 80 % of Munich’s cars by 2030. Key in determining the potential was the assessment of the significance of the individual influencing factors and the strength of their respective effects. It emerged here as sensible to divide these into changeable and given factors. While, for instance, the movement in the price of oil is determined by global parameters, other influential factors can be changed in a targeted way by public policy.
The relevant influencing factors for electric vehicle potential are:
• The range of electric vehicles available on the German car market
• Suitability for everyday use
• Cost efficiency
Taking into account the foreseeable available charging systems, the characteristics of the sites available for setting up the charging infrastructure and the vehicle users’ mobility requirements, it can be assumed that home charging stations will form the basic framework for the gradual development of the charging infrastructure. These can be implemented quickly and easily and for the majority of typical journeys solve the problem of range and charging times.