A study on publicly accessible charging points and charging capacity sets the parameters for expansion over the coming years.
The ‘Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030: scenarios for market ramp-up’ (‘Ladeinfrastruktur nach 2025/2030: Szenarien für den Markthochlauf’) study by the National Centre for Charging Infrastructure was released today in an updated and revised edition. Its findings not only provide an important basis for decision-making in the private sector, but also play an important role in the expansion of the electricity grid, the creation of local master plans in the districts and municipalities, and the regional expansion monitoring of the federal government for the whole of Germany. The results can also be employed in the development of funding guidelines.
The Reiner Lemoine Institute (RLI) has worked with the National Centre for Charging Infrastructure to further develop the model for the 2024 edition and to conduct the calculations. An important basis for the study is the ‘Manufacturer Survey on Market Development and Technology Trends in E-vehicles’ (‘Herstellerbefragung zu Marktentwicklung und Technologietrends bei E-Pkws’), published by NOW GmbH in April.
In addition to the reference scenario, the study also considers four other possible scenarios, which are characterised by different assumptions (low availability of charging infrastructure not accessible to the public, high availability of charging infrastructure not accessible to the public, digital optimisation and HPC focus).
Overview of the key findings:
- The study calculates an installed charging capacity of between 23.3 and 32.4 GW, depending on the scenario.
- This corresponds to a demand of 380,000 to 680,000 publicly accessible charging points, of which 55,000 to 90,000 are HPC charging points with a charging capacity of over 150 kW. In the reference scenario, which combines the basic assumptions, there is a need for 520,000 charging points, of which 68,000 are HPC charging points.
- The total amount of electrical energy supplied to electric cars is 37.8 TWh – with publicly accessible charging infrastructure providing between 36 and 50 per cent of this energy, depending on the scenario.
- The number of charging points in private homes and businesses that are not publicly accessible has a major influence on the necessary publicly accessible charging infrastructure.
- The HPC scenario, which focuses on HPC charging infrastructure, reduces the total number of publicly accessible charging points required as the number of HPC charging points increases, with the installed charging capacity remaining constant compared to the reference scenario.
The charging infrastructure requirements identified in this study are necessary to meet the German government’s ambitious market ramp-up targets. Regardless of when the target number of electric cars is reached, the corresponding minimum requirement for charging infrastructure remains unchanged.
Kurt-Christoph von Knobelsdorff, CEO and spokesperson for NOW GmbH:
“This latest, rrevised study provides a unique data-based planning resource for the charging infrastructure in Germany – a significant contribution for all stakeholders and the automotive and energy industry as a whole. The ambitious target of 15 million electric cars by 2030 remains the guiding principle for the expansion strategy and the successful market ramp-up of electric mobility. Nevertheless, the dynamic developments in both charging technologies and the vehicle market are significantly changing the requirements for the overall system of publicly accessible charging infrastructure. In the long term, charging capacity will play an increasingly important role in planning for this.”
To the complete new (German language) edition of the study (PDF)