Commercial vehicle manufacturers provide sales forecasts – continued rapid market ramp-up anticipated
For the third time, the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) has brought users, manufacturers, infrastructure operators and policy-makers together for the Conference on Climate-Friendly Commercial Vehicles in Berlin. On 12 November 2024, around 500 people discussed perspectives, framework conditions and measures for the ramp-up of climate-friendly commercial vehicles in Germany and Europe.
The conference was opened by Hartmut Höppner, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport and Dagmar Fehler, CEO and Spokesperson of NOW GmbH. In addition to a high-level panel of German commercial vehicle manufacturers and logistics service providers and the perspective from the Netherlands, the conference focussed on the publication of the report on the evaluation of cleanroom discussions with commercial vehicle manufacturers.
Hartmut Höppner, State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport: “Logistics is becoming climate-friendly: According to the report, it is expected that almost 70 per cent of new registrations of heavy-duty trucks will be battery- or hydrogen-powered by 2030. The BMDV is actively supporting this huge transition by building a nationwide fast-charging network for trucks along motorways. This provides planning security for the industrial and transport sectors. The ability to charge in the megawatt range, directly along the motorway, will be accessible nationwide. We are working shoulder to shoulder with freight and haulage companies to create the climate-friendly logistics of tomorrow.”
Dagmar Fehler, CEO and Spokesperson of NOW GmbH: “Commercial vehicles with alternative drives will make road freight transport in Germany more sustainable and make a significant contribution to climate objectives. All commercial vehicle manufacturers have recognized this and are actively helping shape this transformation. They are also agree however, that reaching the ambitious reduction targets for 2030 and beyond will be challenging, which is why they are keeping a variety of technology options open. Now a rapid build-up of infrastructure and a reliable range of advice and support for users is needed. NOW GmbH will continue to help the commercial vehicle sector with its expertise and support the federal government with coordination.”
Sales forecasts of commercial vehicle manufacturers presented in the Cleanroom report
The BMDV‘ s Cleanroom report supplements the first report from 2022 and primarily contains planned sales figures of manufacturers in the coming years as well as the underlying strategic directions. Manufacturers who participated in the latest cleanroom discussions represent over 95% of the market for heavy-duty commercial vehicles in EC vehicle class N3 (> 12 t) in Germany.
At the cleanroom discussions of 2022, it was clear that there was already a dynamic progression of road freight transport towards climate-friendly drive systems. The latest sales figures forecast by the manufacturers confirm the results of 2022. Almost 70 per cent of new registrations of heavy-duty commercial vehicles (N3/>12 t) in Germany will be emission-free in 2030. It was also confirmed that the battery truck will remain the most dominant technology pathway for emission-free heavy-duty commercial vehicles.
Compared to the cleanroom discussions of 2022, drive strategies have become more differentiated: batteries and hydrogen remain the focus, but have been expanded through hydrogen combustion engines as well as through plug-in hybrids, in individual cases. Some manufacturers have supplemented their drive portfolio with alternative low-emission fuels (bio-CNG/-LNG). In terms of reaching the set climate-protection targets in road freight transport, the rapid expansion of public infrastructure, particularly truck charging infrastructure, remains a top priority for manufacturers. It is the most important framework condition for the market ramp-up’s success.
Regulatory framework as a driver for transformation on the roads
The conference made it clear that the regulatory framework, in addition to the CO2-fleet targets for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, particularly the CO2-differentiated truck toll, is a strong incentive to switch to electric commercial vehicles. But other instruments as well, such as the GHG reduction quota can contribute to an economical operation of climate-friendly commercial vehicles.
This is one of the findings from a data story focusing on TCO (Total Cost of Ownership), presented by NOW GmbH at the conference. The data story on the NOW website shares details on the development of the costs of climate-friendly commercial vehicles and allows users to make their own adjustments. The data basis for this is a meta-study that compares several TCO studies with each other.
➡ Dashboard: TCO for climate-friendly commercial vehicles
➡ Factsheets: Truck toll and GHG quota revenues
About NOW GmbH
Since 2008, NOW GmbH has been supporting the federal government’s targets in its climate and industrial policy. The tasks of the federally-owned company include developing, monitoring and evaluating funding programmes about climate-neutral mobility and energy supply. NOW GmbH experts supervise projects in the areas of hydrogen, fuel cells, battery and renewable fuels. They reimagine mobility and fuels for cars, buses, trains, commercial vehicles, ships and airplanes, and support the establishment and further development of charging infrastructure and hydrogen refuelling stations for cars and trucks. More information on NOW can be found here.
Photo: Franz Josef, Berlin