One year after the launch of the SAF Monitor, NOW GmbH and the Centre of Competence for Climate, Environment and Noise Protection in Aviation (CENA Hessen) are today jointly publishing the first large-scale update of the data bank. The acronym SAF stands for Sustainable Aviation Fuels. The SAF Monitor is an interactive, English-language data visualisation that displays all announced projects as well as those already underway in the area of SAF production worldwide. Based on the data of the ‘CENA SAF Outlook 2025-2030’, published in parallel by CENA Hessen, with a data cut-off date of 31.12.24, a large number of new features have now been integrated.
Number of SAF projects rises considerably
The number of SAF projects has grown from 197 as of June 2024 to 265 active projects and initiatives relating to SAF production. This is primarily due to extensive research into the American and Asian markets as well as company feedback and announcements in the German-speaking region. Despite the 35% increase in the number of projects, the amount of SAF forecasted for 2030 worldwide is only set to increase by around 8 per cent (almost 3 million tonnes) to 35.4 million tonnes. The share of biogenic SAF will remain at a comparable level of 28 million tonnes.
Worldwide increase, but decrease in Europe
At the same time, a broader distribution across the continents emerges: compared to data from the previous SAF Monitor, in Asia, around 8.3 million tonnes of SAF is expected in 2030 (+38 per cent) and in South America, around 2.3 million tonnes (+130 per cent). In North America, the figure is 16 million tonnes (+6 per cent) and in Europe, almost 8 million tonnes (-27 per cent). Along with general decline in forecasts, the decline in Europe can be attributed to changes in announcements in major projects in Spain, the UK, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany, which cannot be compensated for by new, smaller projects.
Increasing diversification of the project landscape is becoming clear worldwide. In the area of aviation biofuels, in addition to the HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) process, AtJ (alcohol to jet) processes are coming onto the market. In synthetic aviation fuels, there are also a continually rising number of approaches in addition to the Fischer-Tropf process, that are based on methanol or alternative technological processes.
EU SAF quota achievable from biogenic sources; synthetic SAF requires measures
The requirements of the EU regulation ReFuelEU Aviation (2 per cent SAF admixture from 2025, 6 per cent from 2030) is likely to be achieved based on announced production capacities from projects that are already being developed or are up and running: 21 per cent of the announced volume for 2030 comes from projects that are already running, 16 per cent comes from projects in development – an increase of +4 per cent. Furthermore, 55 per cent are based on announced volumes in projects in the planning phase, 8 per cent on project ideas. The EU sub-quota of 1.2 per cent synthetic SAF in 2030 is therefore not yet ensured. Targeted measures are needed for investment in the relevant facilities and to ensure the planned projects can be implemented.
About the SAF Monitor:
The SAF Monitor 2025 is the interactive data visualisation of the ‘CENA SAF Outlook 2025-2023’. Discrepancies in the announced development of the SAF volumes between the SAF Monitor and the SAF Outlook are due to different data cuts as of June and December 2024. The data is continuously expanded and updated annually in order to illustrate the dynamic changes in the global market for SAF. The Monitor is financed by the Federal Ministry of Transport (BMV) as well as the Hessian Ministry for Economic Affairs, Energy, Transport, Housing and Rural Affairs (HMWVW). The database on which the Monitor was based was produced by CENA Hessen in the framework of the SAF Working Group, which is part of the federal government’s working group on climate-neutral aviation. NOW GmbH and CENA Hessen will regularly update and further develop the Monitor in the future.
Contact for questions and additions:
saf-monitor@cena-hessen.de
kraftstoffe@now-gmbh.de
About NOW GmbH
Since 2008, NOW GmbH has been supporting the federal government’s targets in its climate and industrial policy. The tasks of the federally-owned company include developing, monitoring and evaluating funding programmes about climate-neutral mobility and energy supply. NOW GmbH experts supervise projects in the areas of hydrogen, fuel cells, battery and renewable fuels. They reimagine mobility and fuels for cars, buses, trains, commercial vehicles, ships and airplanes, and support the establishment and further development of charging infrastructure and hydrogen refuelling stations for cars and trucks. More information on NOW can be found here.
About CENA Hessen and Hessen Trade & Invest GmbH
The Centre of Competence for Climate, Environment and Noise Protection in Aviation – CENA Hessen – supported by the state-owned economic development agency HTAI, is an initiator for sustainable innovation in aviation. CENA researches, networks interested stakeholders and helps to implement innovative projects. It works on topics like CO2-neutral flying, alternative fuels as well as technologies for noise and environmental protection in aviation. More information on CENA Hessen can be found here: www.cena-hessen.de.
Hessen Trade & Invest GmbH (HTAI) is the economic development agency of the state of Hesse. Its core task is to secure and increase the competitiveness of Hesse as an economic and technological hub. The HTAI is a central contact for companies as well as for scientific, political and social institutions. htai.de * hessisch.de
