The electrification of mobility is gaining momentum worldwide – and with it the demand for critical raw materials for drive batteries. NOW GmbH has analysed the current supply situation for strategic battery raw materials in 2025 and shows that geological resources are sufficiently available, but geopolitical dependencies and limited production capacities pose considerable supply risks.
The most important facts at a glance:
- Global demand for battery capacity for electric vehicles will rise from 950 GWh (2024) to a projected 5,600 GWh by 2035 – a sixfold increase in just eleven years.
- European demand will grow from 185 GWh (2024) to around 1,400 GWh (2035), accounting for around 25% of total global demand.
- The additional demand for individual raw materials will develop very differently – manganese (+550%), copper (+490%), lithium (+460%), graphite (+360%), nickel (+320%) and cobalt (+260%) by 2035.
- China dominates large parts of the battery value chain, particularly in the refining of graphite (87%), cobalt (77%) and copper (47%).
- Only 15 countries dominate global battery raw material production, including Australia, Chile, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia.
- The EU Battery Regulation sets progressively higher recycling rates – up to 95% for cobalt, copper and nickel from 2031 onwards.
“According to our analyses, the geological reserves of critical raw materials significantly exceed the projected demand,” explains Dagmar Fehler, CEO and spokesperson for NOW GmbH. “However, supply gaps only arise as a result of insufficiently developed deposits and, above all, geopolitically motivated export restrictions. Europe is highly dependent on raw material imports – we must reduce this strategic dependency through our own capacities, higher recycling efficiency and reliable international partnerships.”
The EU is addressing this challenge with the Critical Raw Materials Act, which defines binding environmental and social standards, expands its own extraction and refining capacities, and promotes the recycling of used batteries. Secondary raw materials can reduce dependence on the global raw materials market while also lowering CO₂ emissions..
